Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct 3, 2024): Fresh off his first Oscar nomination for his portrayal of civil rights leader Bayard Rustin in “Rustin” (2023), Colman Domingo seems poised for a return to the Academy Awards, this time for his powerful performance in Greg Kwedar’s beautiful drama “Sing Sing.” His portrayal of Divine G, an inmate involved in the theater productions at the Sing Sing Correctional Facility, showcases his mastery of emotional depth, further cementing his reputation as one of the most compelling actors of his generation. It also helps that he’s one of the best dressers in town.
In “Sing Sing,” Domingo’s performance is rooted in a profound character exploration. He brings a quiet intensity to Divine G, blending the harsh realities of prison life. The role allows Domingo to display a range of emotions — vulnerability, resilience, and hope — all qualities the Actor’s Branch loves to recognize.
But could Domingo emerge as a serious contender after a summer release?
Noteworthy, if nominated, Domingo would be the first Afro-Latino in any acting category to be nominated a second time by the Academy. He would be only the fourth Latino nominated overall to nab a second nom after José Ferrer, Anthony Quinn and Benicio del Toro. He would also tie Ferrer and Quinn as the most nominated Latino and best actor, with two.
He faces stiff competition from several standout performances, particularly his fellow A24 counterparts — Adrien Brody’s turn in “The Brutalist” and Daniel Craig’s performance in “Queer” are already generating significant buzz. Additionally, Ralph Fiennes, a perennial favorite in acting circles, is being hailed for one of the finest performances of his career in Edward Berger’s thriller “Conclave.” Fiennes has yet to win an Oscar (despite two noms for “Schindler’s List” and “The English Patient”), and his work in “Conclave” could make him a formidable contender this awards season.
Read the new updates and rankings below.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 1 Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 2 Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 3 Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24) 4 Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 5 Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 
Next in Line
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 6 Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24) 7 Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 8 John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 9 Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 10 Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 
Other Contenders
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 11 Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) 12 Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 13 Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 14 Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) 15 Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 16 Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) 17 Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures) 18 Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24) 19 Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24) 20 André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions) 
Also In Contention
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 21 Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) ** 22 Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment) 23 Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 24 Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix) 25 Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) 26 Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 27 René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 28 Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 29 Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) 30 Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) Eligible Performers (Best Actor)
This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Robbie Williams — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jason Schwartzman — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Channing Tatum — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Lakieth Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24)
- Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment)
- Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) **
- Ryan Reynolds — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Izaac Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- George MacKay — “The End” (Neon) **
- Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **
- Hitoshi Omika — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions)
- Ryan Gosling — “The Fall Guy” (Universal Pictures)
- Keith Kupferer — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films)
- Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Michael Keaton — “Goodrich” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)
- Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Justice Smith — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “The Idea of You” (Amazon Studios)
- René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Casey Affleck — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Matt Damon — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Adam Driver — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Dev Patel — “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Brandon Wilson — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) **
- Nicholas Hoult — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
- Anthony Hopkins — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24)
- Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kauchani Bratt — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **
- Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Glen Powell — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Tom Hardy — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- Blake Cameron Jones — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Gian Knight Ramirez — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Daniel Zovatto — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) **
More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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